In this column, I predict the fate of certain games based on the information available and my read on the game industry at the moment. By necessity, this column will focus on games that I think will flop or do moderately well, as anyone with a brain can predict that games like Modern Warfare 2 will be huge. Sometimes my predictions will be right. Sometimes they'll be wrong. But they'll always be an opportunity for you, the reader, to tell me that I'm a moron, a hater, or worse. Today's contestant: Brutal Legend.

I'd like to open by saying that I like Tim Schafer and heavy metal. I'd love to see this game be a massive hit and sell millions of copies. But, Ozzy help me, I just can't see how that's in the cards. There are a few major reasons. First, metal isn't exactly a hot musical genre and hasn't been for some time. Yes, there's still a devoted core audience out there, but you always have to reach beyond the core to have a successful game based on a niche. Tony Hawk didn't become a hit franchise because it sold just to active skaters, after all. Brutal Legend's main selling point seems to be all the authentic metal references it packs in. That's bound to get metal fans excited. But will the mainstream, non-metal audience see anything in this game for them? I don't know.

Second, there's the celebrity factor, and I'm not just talking about Jack Black. Tim Schafer is a legitimate gaming celeb, but in recent years he's become best known for good games most people didn't play, like Psychonauts. But again, does anyone who's not a Schafer fan care? And is Jack Black a draw these days? The box office take of Year One would suggest that he's not. Another major selling point that may not actually sell games.

Brutal Legend will be, without question, a funny game. Let's hope they have better luck with that than Eat Lead: The Return of Matt Hazard.

Final point: Take a look at the video above, which is one of the first times I've gotten a solid glimpse of the actual gameplay. Looks... kinda familiar, doesn't it? Sure, the weapon choices are new, but it's essentially the same kind of third-person hack and slash action we've all played a dozen times before. This is an early stage, so things may get more complex, but despite Brutal Legend's no doubt funny plot and clever nods, the actual game doesn't look like anything special. And while I loved Psychonauts, it was primarily for the great writing and art direction. What I liked the least was the actual gameplay.

Despite all the strikes I think it has against it, I don't think Brutal Legend will bomb. But I don't think it'll be a hit, either. EA seems to have a big marketing push behind the game, and it will be reviewed well, so I'm sure the game will end up doing "moderately well," moving maybe half a million copies between the 360 and PS3 versions. Not a smash, not a failure, simply a lukewarm seller that will be quickly overshadowed by the bigger titles coming a few weeks later.

Snap Judgment Prediction: Minor Hit
Why I Could be Wrong: The Power of Metal compells us all!