The Numbers: May 2008

Posted by Gary Hodges at 10:05 PM Jun 24, 2008

Yes, yes: I'm a week late with the NPD blog. I was out of town last week having an adventure in Oklahoma. The humidity is really something else there, everything just seems vaguely sodden. It makes the 110 degree plus weather here in Arizona a relief by comparison.

Anyway, to the numbermobile! This month, I'm including last month's hardware figures to compare.

Hardware (Last Month):

Nintendo Wii - 675,100 (714,200)
Nintendo DS - 452,600 (414,800)
Sony PlayStation 3 - 208,700 (187,100)
Microsoft Xbox 360 - 186,600 (188,000)
Sony PSP - 182,300 (192,700)
Sony PlayStation 2 - 132,700 (124,400)

...and software:

Platform - Title - Units
360 - Grand Theft Auto IV - 871,000
Wii - Mario Kart - 784,700
Wii - Wii Fit - 687,700
PS3 - Grand Theft Auto IV - 442,900
Wii - Wii Play - 294,600
Wii - Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 171,100
PS2 - Iron Man - 130,600
Wii - Guitar Hero III - 116,800
DS - Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorer of Darkness - 107,000
DS - Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time - 102,000

Commentary and goofy animated gifs after the jump!

As has been the case since the Wii launched, this month can be summarized with this sort of visual shorthand:

Nintendo




Microsoft & Sony

As usual, the Wii is outselling the Microsoft and Sony boxes combined - no big surprises there, everything looks more or less like it did last month.

But that is surprising. Everyone - me included - expected the combined forces of Wii Fit and GTA4 to really cause some dramatic movement in May's numbers - but as you can see, that didn't happen. Sales didn't really change at all. In fact, both the Wii and the 360 did worse in May than April. The Wii and the 360 - the consoles that had the top three spots in the software sales charts!

What do you say about that? While some have already penned long essays on the figures being evidence GTA as a brand isn't what it used to be and the Wii bubble finally bursting, I think there's a simpler explanation - at least for the 360's case - staring us right in the face.

Too fucking expensive. MS and Sony (MS in particular) have virtually exhausted the number of gamers who are willing to drop $300-$500 on a console, or are damn close.

I knew it had been a while, but in doing my homework for this blog I was struck by the following date: the Xbox 360 hit the market in November 2005, almost 32 months ago. That makes it squarely middle aged (assuming it's lifespan is the typical 60 months or so).

In that 32 month span, the price has dropped about $50.

By comparison, the original Xbox dropped $100 within 6 months of launch, the GameCube $50 in the same time frame (putting them at $200 and $150, respectively). The more successful PS2 was able to hold out longer, but Sony even slashed it a C-note after 19 months (putting it at $200).

In short: expect a price cut announcement from MS this year, maybe even at E3. They're way, way overdue, and since GTA4 isn't bumping their sales, someone over there has to be getting ready to turn the key. Especially with the PS3 creeping up on their heels. Speaking of the PS3, obviously it got a bump somewhere - nothing huge, but 20k over the prior month and the closest competition. Three possibilities there:

1) As Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter argues, perhaps Sony fans think of GTA4 as a PlayStation-brand game, so the modest bump from the game's release manifested there.

2) He also argues Blu-ray will continue to gain traction and eventually pull the PS3 into the lead.

3) Personally, I wonder if the PS3's numbers have anywhere to go but up. Maybe the fact GTA4 and Metal Gear Solid 4 (which is apparently doing fantastically at retail) are coming within a couple months of each other is making the PS3 more attractive to fence-sitters.

As for the software chart: I predicted last month that Super Smash Bros. would drop off the chart completely this month, though it did manage to barely squeak by, ahem, Iron Man for the PS2. We didn't review Iron Man, because not even game reviewers deserve that sort of treatment.

My pet predictions for June's numbers: MGS4 will bump the PS3 in ways GTA4 didn't and the 360 will slide further, creating the biggest gap between the two consoles in a long while. Mario Kart will drop significantly.

I think Wii Fit will drop off a lot too, but maybe I just want to believe that.

Not exactly Nostradamus-level foresights there, but what can I say? It's a boring summer.

Enter the banner contest, nobody's got them all correct yet.

Tah tah,

Gary